Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will travel to face Philadelphia Union on 24 May 2026 in a regular-season Major League Soccer fixture. The prediction market currently implies a 45% probability of a Miami victory, suggesting near-parity with a slight lean towards a Philadelphia result or draw. This probability sits notably lower than typical sportsbook moneyline odds for Miami in comparable away matchups, where the club has historically attracted 48–52% backing when travelling to mid-table Eastern Conference opponents.

Historical context matters here: Inter Miami's record against Philadelphia over the past three seasons shows marginal advantage to the home side, with Philadelphia winning two of the last four meetings at Subaru Park. Miami's away form in 2025 and early 2026 has been inconsistent, particularly in May fixtures where the club has struggled with fixture congestion and travel fatigue. By contrast, Philadelphia has shown stronger home-field performance under their current tactical setup, winning 60% of home matches since late 2024. The 45% implied probability reflects this structural disadvantage for the visiting side.

Traders should monitor team news releases and injury bulletins in the fortnight before the match, particularly regarding Miami's midfield depth and Philadelphia's defensive availability. Fixture scheduling announcements—whether either side faces a midweek commitment immediately before or after this game—will materially affect preparation time. Recent MLS scheduling patterns suggest May fixtures often cluster tightly, which historically favours teams with deeper squads. Confirmation of starting lineups typically arrives 90 minutes before kickoff, offering a final data point for position adjustment.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.