Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 200.5 | 95% |
| O/U 202.5 | 94% |
| O/U 204.5 | 92% |
| O/U 206.5 | 91% |
| O/U 208.5 | 87% |
| O/U 210.5 | 85% |
| O/U 212.5 | 82% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 9.5 | 80% |
| O/U 214.5 | 79% |
| Heat vs. Jazz | 77% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 9.5 | 77% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 216.5 | 75% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 218.5 | 71% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 68% |
| O/U 220.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 67% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 4.5 | 67% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| O/U 222.5 | 63% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 224.5 | 59% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 226.5 | 55% |
| O/U 227.5 | 54% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -8.5 | 52% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 228.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 230.5 | 46% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| O/U 232.5 | 40% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -12.5 | 39% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 234.5 | 36% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 236.5 | 33% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 31% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| O/U 238.5 | 30% |
| Spread -16.5 | 29% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| O/U 240.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 25% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -18.5 | 24% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| O/U 242.5 | 22% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 244.5 | 19% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| O/U 246.5 | 16% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -22.5 | 15% |
| O/U 248.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 12% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 250.5 | 11% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -26.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 252.5 | 9% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| O/U 254.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -28.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Spread -30.5 | 6% |
| Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| O/U 256.5 | 6% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 6% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -32.5 | 4% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Spread -34.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 2% |
Market context
Heat vs. Jazz — current market-implied probability: 95%. In the upcoming NBA game between Heat and Jazz, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Heat win, the market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $61K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Heat vs. Jazz on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →