Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 95% |
| O/U 199.5 | 94% |
| O/U 201.5 | 93% |
| O/U 203.5 | 91% |
| O/U 205.5 | 88% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Damian Lillard: Points O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 14.5 | 87% |
| Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| O/U 207.5 | 85% |
| Damian Lillard: Assists O/U 1.5 | 85% |
| O/U 209.5 | 82% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 82% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| O/U 211.5 | 79% |
| Toumani Camara: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 3.5 | 79% |
| Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Damian Lillard: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 77% |
| Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 4.5 | 76% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| O/U 213.5 | 75% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 24.5 | 74% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Damian Lillard: Points O/U 14.5 | 73% |
| O/U 215.5 | 72% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 217.5 | 68% |
| Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 9.5 | 67% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 66% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Toumani Camara: Points O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Toumani Camara: Steals O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| O/U 219.5 | 62% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Toumani Camara: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| Donovan Clingan: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 | 60% |
| Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| Damian Lillard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Alex Caruso: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 58% |
| O/U 221.5 | 57% |
| Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Scoot Henderson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Damian Lillard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Donovan Clingan: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Thunder vs. Trail Blazers | 55% |
| Donovan Clingan: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 223.5 | 54% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 224.5 | 52% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Toumani Camara: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Jared McCain: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Damian Lillard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Trail Blazers O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Jrue Holiday: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Toumani Camara: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Damian Lillard: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 226.5 | 47% |
| Kenrich Williams: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Deni Avdija: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Scoot Henderson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 227.5 | 45% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Alex Caruso: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Damian Lillard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Donovan Clingan: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Scoot Henderson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| O/U 229.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Toumani Camara: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 231.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Damian Lillard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Jrue Holiday: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| O/U 233.5 | 35% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 34.5 | 35% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| Toumani Camara: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Jrue Holiday: Steals O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Alex Caruso: Points O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Toumani Camara: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Clingan: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Scoot Henderson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Toumani Camara: Steals O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 235.5 | 31% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Deni Avdija: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Jrue Holiday: Steals O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Toumani Camara: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Toumani Camara: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Damian Lillard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Scoot Henderson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 237.5 | 26% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5 | 26% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Damian Lillard: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| O/U 239.5 | 24% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -11.5 | 22% |
| Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Damian Lillard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Jrue Holiday: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 241.5 | 20% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Scoot Henderson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Deni Avdija: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Clingan: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Toumani Camara: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 243.5 | 17% |
| Damian Lillard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Damian Lillard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Donovan Clingan: Assists O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| O/U 245.5 | 14% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Alex Caruso: Points O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Damian Lillard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Donovan Clingan: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jrue Holiday: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Toumani Camara: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jrue Holiday: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 247.5 | 12% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Toumani Camara: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Toumani Camara: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Alex Caruso: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 10% |
| Jared McCain: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Clingan: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 249.5 | 9% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 44.5 | 9% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 9% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Damian Lillard: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Damian Lillard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Deni Avdija: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 8% |
| Scoot Henderson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Damian Lillard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Jrue Holiday: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Toumani Camara: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Clingan: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| O/U 251.5 | 7% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Deni Avdija: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Damian Lillard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Damian Lillard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| Kenrich Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Donovan Clingan: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Damian Lillard: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -23.5 | 4% |
| Spread -25.5 | 4% |
| Alex Caruso: Points O/U 14.5 | 4% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
| Spread -26.5 | 2% |
Market context
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers — current market-implied probability: 95%. In the upcoming NBA game between Thunder and Trail Blazers, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Thunder…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $68K.
Methodology
This page reviews Thunder vs. Trail Blazers across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Thunder vs. Trail Blazers on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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