Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Bologna will host Inter Milan in Serie A on 24 May 2026, with the prediction market currently pricing a Bologna victory at 26 per cent implied probability. This fixture falls late in the season, potentially carrying implications for European qualification or final standings depending on both clubs' positions at that stage. Inter have been Serie A's dominant force in recent years, winning multiple consecutive titles, whilst Bologna have historically occupied mid-table positions, making an away-side victory the baseline expectation.

The 26 per cent probability for Bologna sits notably above typical sportsbook odds for the home side in this matchup. Major European bookmakers have historically quoted Bologna at 15–20 per cent in comparable fixtures against top-four Serie A sides, suggesting the prediction market is pricing in either elevated home-ground advantage or uncertainty around squad composition by late May. Analyst consensus from Italian football publications typically favours Inter by a 2–1 margin in expected goals, though Bologna's home record has shown resilience in recent seasons.

Key variables affecting settlement include injury status for Inter's attacking personnel, which typically emerges through official team news in the 48 hours before kickoff, and whether either side has secured European qualification by that date—a factor that historically influences squad rotation decisions. Bologna's form trajectory through April and early May will also signal their competitive state; any significant injury crisis or managerial instability could shift the underlying match dynamics. The settlement window closes at 13:00 GMT on match day, allowing only pre-match news to influence final pricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.