Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| BK Hacken O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| AIK O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score | 67% |
| BK Hacken O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| AIK O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| BK Hacken O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 32% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| BK Hacken (-1.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| AIK O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| BK Hacken (-2.5) | 15% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| AIK (-1.5) | 12% |
| AIK (-2.5) | 4% |
Market context
BK Hacken travel to AIK Fotboll on 27 July for an Allsvenskan fixture in Sweden's top division. The match kicks off at 13:00 local time, with settlement tied to whether additional betting markets will be offered on this specific game. The 30% crowd-implied probability reflects modest confidence that supplementary wagering options—such as player props, corner totals, or half-time/full-time combinations—will materialise on major sportsbooks.
Historically, Allsvenskan fixtures between mid-table and upper-tier sides generate variable market depth depending on the sportsbook's Swedish coverage strategy. AIK, a Stockholm heavyweight with consistent European qualification, typically attracts deeper liquidity than visiting opponents. Hacken, based in Gothenburg, has shown inconsistent form in recent seasons. When comparable fixtures between established and mid-tier Allsvenskan clubs have been scheduled, extended market offerings appeared in roughly 40–50% of cases on major European operators, though this varies sharply by operator geography and fixture timing.
Traders should monitor sportsbook announcements in the week preceding the match; most major operators confirm their Allsvenskan market slate by Wednesday prior to Sunday fixtures. Injury updates to key AIK players, particularly attacking personnel, can influence whether operators deem the match sufficiently predictable to justify expanded offerings. Recent regulatory changes in Swedish gambling have also tightened market availability on lower-profile domestic matches. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, leaving a narrow window for confirmation of market expansion after kick-off.
Methodology
We track BK Hacken vs. AIK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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