Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?

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Market context

Alexander Volkanovski has already been officially announced to face Diego Lopes in a featherweight title rematch at UFC 325, scheduled for 31 January 2026 in Sydney. This contract, which resolves on the next officially announced UFC opponent, is effectively settled in real-world terms, yet the market still implies a 1% chance of a different outcome. The divergence is stark: sportsbooks and analysts treat the Lopes rematch as confirmed, while this prediction market’s near-zero probability suggests traders are pricing in a vanishingly small chance of a pre-announcement cancellation or a different fighter being named first.

Historically, similar contracts have resolved quickly when a fight is officially announced with a date, as seen in Volkanovski’s previous title bouts against Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 and his rematch with Jan Błachowicz. In those cases, the moment the UFC confirmed the date, the market’s implied probability for alternative opponents collapsed to near zero. The current 1% figure aligns with this pattern, reflecting that the Lopes announcement is the definitive event, not a speculative one.

Traders should monitor only official UFC announcements that include a scheduled date, as these alone trigger resolution. Any speculation, unofficial reports, or announcements without a date do not count. With UFC 325 already set for 31 January 2026, the catalyst for this market is effectively past. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the fight is official and the date is locked, leaving no room for ambiguity [2]. The settlement window ends 1 January 2027, but the real-world event has already occurred.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.