Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 80% |
| Jessica Shepard: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 60% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Azzi Fudd: Points O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Points O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Jessica Shepard: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| O/U 179.5 | 20% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings | 14% |
| O/U 180.5 | 10% |
| O/U 178.5 | 3% |
| O/U 181.5 | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 80% chance of atlanta dream vs. dallas wings. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 29 at 8:00PM ET: If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream". If the Dallas Wings win, the market will resolv…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $276K.
Methodology
We track Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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