Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 94% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 86% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky | 70% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 183.5 | 12% |
| O/U 182.5 | 11% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to las vegas aces vs. chicago sky. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 1 at 1:00PM ET: If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the Chicago Sky win, the market will resolve to "Chicago Sky"…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $362K.
Methodology
We track Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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