Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 71% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 Winner | 46% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 Winner | 46% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng | 42% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 40% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 28% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 25% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexandra Eala and Qinwen Zheng in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexand…
Methodology
We track Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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