Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 Winner | 42% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 2 Winner | 41% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Match O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro | 39% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 23% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification wta: rebecca marino vs fiona ferro stands at 69% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Rebecca Marino and Fiona Ferro in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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