Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of japan women's open: antonia ruzic vs kayla day. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Antonia Ruzic and Kayla Day in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
We track Japan Women's Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Kayla Day across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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