Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, hamburg european open: sara sorribes tormo vs alina charaeva stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Sorribes Tormo and Alina Charaeva in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page reviews Hamburg European Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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