S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on whether the S&P 500 closes higher on Monday, 13 July 2026 than it did on Friday, 10 July, with the crowd pricing a rise at just 5%. Today, the index sits near 7,556.77, having closed Friday at 7,575.39, meaning a modest rebound of roughly 0.24% is needed to resolve “Up” [3][7].

Historically, Monday reversals after a Friday dip are uncommon but not rare; in 2026, the index has gained an average 12.28% year-to-date, suggesting underlying strength that often cushions early-week weakness [5]. Over the past 52 weeks, the SPX has traded between 6,201.59 and 7,620.90, with the 5% implied probability for a rise appearing starkly lower than the long-run frequency of positive Mondays in bull phases [2][3].

Traders should watch the 13 July intraday action for any reaction to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting minutes, which are typically released the following Wednesday but can spark pre-emptive positioning [6]. With the 52-week high recorded on 2 June at 7,620.90, a break above that level would signal renewed momentum, while failure to hold 7,540 could confirm the bearish bias implied by the 5% odds [1][7]. No major earnings or economic releases are scheduled for Monday, leaving technical levels and macro sentiment as the primary drivers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.