Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi

Platform comparison

Market context

Dan Added and Kenta Miyoshi were scheduled to meet in Samsun on outdoor hard courts, and the market’s 0% YES implies the contract has already been priced as effectively settled against a straightforward Added advance. Public match trackers show the contest was listed for 30 July 2026, with start times around 09:00–10:10 UTC depending on the feed, and both players’ current ATP ranks place Added well ahead of Miyoshi at roughly No. 224 versus No. 602.[1][6] That ranking gap, plus the lack of any head-to-head history, is broadly consistent with analyst previews that leaned towards Miyoshi only as a narrow live-edge or three-set upset angle rather than a strong pre-match favourite case.[9][11]

Comparable Challenger markets often swing sharply when the match status changes from scheduled to live, but a 0% prediction-market price usually signals one of three things: the event has been completed, the outcome has been fully reflected elsewhere, or the contract has been effectively marked down because the listed settlement condition is no longer open. TennisTemple’s pre-match model still showed a modest Added edge at 57.1% to 42.9%, while one bookmaker-facing preview had Miyoshi around 1.615 and Added at 2.14, illustrating that pre-match consensus was mixed rather than unanimous.[3][9] In other words, the market is not tracking a live consensus on who would have won; it is trading the contract’s state as much as the sporting match itself.

Traders should watch for the official ATP/Challenger scoreline, retirement notes, and any scheduler updates from the event, because these contracts can resolve to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond the stated window without a winner.[1] Live score services already show the fixture as in progress or recently updated, with one feed listing a third set and another still displaying the match page, so the key catalyst is whether a completed result is posted cleanly before the settlement deadline.[2][5] If the match ended via retirement, the advance condition will matter more than the score at abandonment, which is exactly where cross-platform discrepancies usually appear.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.