Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 Winner | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marton Fucsovics in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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