Canadian Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Hugo Gaston’s qualifying match against Duncan Chan at the Canadian Open is the underlying event here, and the market’s 0% YES read is hard to reconcile with the live tennis listings that still identify the fixture as a completed or settled contest. Tennis.com lists the men’s singles qualifying round 1 match at Centre Court, with Gaston and Chan both entered for the tie, while National Bank Open’s results page also carries the pairing in its 2026 match records.[8][2]

For probability comparison, the clearest cross-platform signal is that prediction-market pricing appears to have collapsed to the contract floor, while sportsbook-style and score-tracking pages are not aligned on the same level of certainty. Robinhood’s related exact-score market shows Duncan Chan-priced outcomes, and Flashscore is also carrying odds data on the match page, but neither source establishes a reliable live win probability for this binary contract.[11][5] That kind of divergence is common when a market is thin, when one side has already advanced in a feed, or when a result has been entered before all venues update.

The main catalysts to watch are official draw-status changes, any late schedule move, and whether the ATP/National Bank Open result feed confirms advancement before the settlement window closes. Recent tournament coverage shows the event is running on the standard Canadian Open qualifying schedule, and Olympics.com’s results coverage indicates the Masters 1000 event has been producing continuous score updates, which matters because this contract resolves on advancement rather than just match completion.[15][2] If the match was postponed, cancelled, or left without a recorded winner for more than seven days from the original slot, the contract terms point to a 50-50 settlement rather than a one-sided payout.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Canadian Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.