Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Platform comparison

Market context

Felix Gill and Jack Pinnington Jones are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at Brownsburg on 13 August 2026, with the contest originally set for 1:00 PM ET. The market settlement window extends to 20 August 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion before resolution defaults to a 50-50 split should the match be cancelled, tied, or substantially delayed.

The 0% implied probability on Gill's advancement reflects either minimal trading activity or a strong consensus favouring Pinnington Jones. Comparable lower-tier professional tennis matches on prediction markets typically show wider probability distributions when both players carry similar ranking profiles or limited recent head-to-head data. The absence of any meaningful YES probability suggests either that sportsbooks have established a clear favourite, or that the market has received insufficient liquidity to establish a reliable consensus line. Cross-platform comparison with standard tennis betting sites would clarify whether this reflects genuine analytical conviction or simply thin order books.

Traders monitoring this contract should track both players' recent tournament results and any schedule disruptions affecting the Brownsburg event itself. Injury announcements or late withdrawals in the fortnight before 13 August would trigger immediate resolution considerations under the cancellation clause. Weather conditions at the venue and any ATP or ITF scheduling conflicts merit attention, particularly given the seven-day grace period that could push resolution into late August. Recent form data and head-to-head records, if available through ATP databases, would provide the factual foundation for assessing whether the current probability distribution aligns with underlying match fundamentals.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.