Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Quentin Halys and Mattia Bellucci are scheduled to meet in the first or early round of Roland Garros in May 2026, with the match originally set for 5:00 AM ET on 24 May. The prediction market currently prices Halys as a 74 per cent favourite, reflecting his higher ranking and recent form. Both players are mid-tier ATP competitors; Halys, a French national, has competed regularly on the tour with occasional deep runs in smaller events, whilst Bellucci, an Italian, has similarly occupied the 100–200 ranking band in recent seasons.

Historical matchups between players of comparable ranking at Roland Garros show that seeding and recent clay-court preparation typically drive outcomes more than head-to-head records. Halys holds a modest advantage in clay-court experience and has performed better in qualifying rounds and early-stage main-draw matches over the past two years. The 74 per cent implied probability aligns reasonably with standard sportsbook lines for this tier of match, though some books have offered Halys at −280 to −300 moneyline odds, which translates to roughly 74–75 per cent. No significant divergence exists between prediction-market and sportsbook pricing.

Key variables for traders include late withdrawals or injury announcements in the week before the tournament, weather delays that might affect scheduling, and any last-minute ranking shifts affecting seeding. Roland Garros scheduling can shift matches by several hours or days depending on court availability and tournament flow. The settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a six-day buffer beyond the scheduled date to accommodate delays, though matches abandoned entirely or unfinished after that threshold would resolve 50–50.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.