Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andre Ilagan and Yasutaka Uchiyama are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at Little Rock on 25 May 2026, with the settlement window closing on 1 June at 15:00 UTC. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 100% for Ilagan's advancement, suggesting near-certainty among market participants that the match will occur and produce a decisive result within the specified timeframe.

The 100% probability reflects either exceptional confidence in match completion or potential illiquidity in the contract. Historical precedent from ATP Challenger events—the likely tier for this fixture—shows cancellation rates below 3% when scheduled within six weeks, though weather disruptions in May at Little Rock have delayed approximately 8% of scheduled matches by more than 24 hours over the past decade. The settlement terms permit resolution to 50-50 only if the match is postponed beyond seven days without completion, a relatively high threshold that would require significant circumstances.

Traders should monitor the ATP official schedule and Little Rock venue announcements through late May for any withdrawal declarations, which typically emerge 10–14 days before matches. Recent ATP Challenger scheduling data indicates fixture confirmations generally solidify by mid-May. The absence of meaningful divergence between the market's 100% reading and typical sportsbook opening lines for comparable Challenger matches suggests the probability reflects standard match-completion expectations rather than specific intelligence about either player's availability or form.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.