Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 77% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs | 72% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 Winner | 66% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 Winner | 65% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 21.5 | 55% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 53% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Game Spread +/-3.5 | 52% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Match O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 32% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to japan open tennis championships: jiri lehecka vs zizou bergs. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Zizou Bergs in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We track Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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