San Marino: Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino

Platform comparison

Market context

Thiago Monteiro and Andrea Pellegrino were due to meet on red clay in San Marino, but the market’s current **100% YES** price for Monteiro looks far more extreme than the wider tennis data. Public scoreboards list Pellegrino as the higher-ranked player, around ATP 137 against Monteiro’s ATP 303, yet the head-to-head still heavily favours Monteiro at **5-1 overall** and **5-1 on clay**.[1][2][8]

That makes the contract easier to read as a matchup-price rather than a pure ranking play. Tennis.com’s pre-match projection had Pellegrino as the more likely winner at **62%**,[10] while Tennis Temple’s live match page also leaned towards Pellegrino at **77.3%**, showing a clear gap between prediction-market certainty and cross-platform tennis models.[8] Historically, however, Monteiro’s repeated success in this pairing is the main reason a one-sided market can exist despite the ranking split.[2][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually completed, whether either player withdraws or is walked over into the next round, and whether the result was merely delayed rather than decided inside the settlement window. The event was listed for 30 July 2026 in San Marino on multiple live match trackers, so any schedule change, retirement, or abandoned match status would matter more here than pre-match form.[1][3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Marino: Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.