Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match in Tyler on 6 June 2026 at 12:30 PM ET, with the settlement window closing on 13 June 2026. The current 0% implied probability for Poling suggests either exceptionally strong market confidence in Ilagan or minimal trading activity on this contract, a distinction worth examining given the settlement deadline sits only seven days beyond the scheduled match date.

Comparable lower-tier professional tennis matches on prediction markets typically see implied probabilities reflecting seeding differentials, recent form, and head-to-head records. Without established ATP or Challenger tour rankings for both players, the market's complete dismissal of Poling's chances warrants scrutiny—such extreme probabilities often emerge when one player holds a decisive edge in documented wins or when information asymmetry favours one side. Historical precedent suggests that matches at regional or developmental levels occasionally produce upsets when the favourite faces unexpected fatigue or injury, though these remain statistical outliers.

Traders should monitor whether either player withdraws or sustains injury prior to 6 June, as the seven-day grace period before forced resolution creates a window for late-breaking developments. Confirmation of both players' participation and recent match results from their respective tours would clarify whether the 0% reflects genuine form disparity or thin liquidity. Any sportsbook lines available through regional operators or tennis-specific platforms would provide cross-market validation; divergence between prediction-market and sportsbook odds on developmental-level matches often signals where informed traders perceive value.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.