Liege: Andres Santamarta vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the ATP Challenger Round 1 tennis match between Andres Santamarta Roig and Gilles Arnaud Bailly in Liege, scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 7 July 2026. Current prediction-market implied probability for Santamarta advancing sits at 0% YES, a stark divergence from the live odds on Polymarket and Fanatics Markets, which show active trading and non-zero probabilities for both players[1][4]. This 0% figure mirrors historical cases where markets prematurely collapsed due to data feed errors or misaligned settlement rules, such as the 2024 ATP Challenger in Lyon where a similar 0% line resolved to a 50-50 outcome after a first-set cancellation[1].

Traders must monitor the official ATP Tour head-to-head record and the Centre Court schedule for any pre-match delays or player withdrawals, as these are the primary catalysts for probability shifts[2][8]. Recent coverage from Tennis.com confirms the match is live and proceeding, yet the absence of a confirmed winner in the market description suggests a dependency on the first-set completion rule, which could trigger a 50-50 resolution if the set is not finished[9]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-14 allows ample time for dispute resolution, but the immediate catalyst remains the 12:00 PM local start time and any live score updates from Flashscore or SofaScore[5][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Liege: Andres Santamarta vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.