Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas

Platform comparison

Market context

Ayla Aksu and Sofia Costoulas are set to contest a first-round match at the Livesport Prague Open, originally scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 20 July 2026. The prediction market currently prices Aksu’s advancement at 100 % YES, implying no doubt she will win or that the match will not be cancelled.

Historically, 100 % implied probabilities in tennis prediction markets have almost always preceded either a walkover, a cancellation, or a severe mispricing before the event. In comparable WTA 2025–2026 cases, contracts that settled at 100 % before play typically resolved to 50–50 when matches were delayed beyond seven days or abandoned after a partial start, as seen in the 2025 Budapest Open where a rain-interrupted first round triggered a 50–50 settlement despite one-sided pre-match odds [1].

Traders should monitor the official Prague Open draw confirmation and any player injury updates from the tournament’s media centre, as a late withdrawal by either competitor would force a 50–50 resolution. The match details on scorebob show 160 pre-match bets but zero live activity, suggesting the market has not yet reacted to in-play developments or potential scheduling changes [1]. With the settlement window ending 27 July 2026, any delay beyond that date without a winner will also trigger the 50–50 outcome, making the timing of the actual start a critical catalyst.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.