Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

Platform comparison

Market context

Marta Kostyuk and Mirra Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026. The 0% implied probability on this prediction market reflects either a technical issue with the contract, a mismatch between settlement criteria and actual tournament scheduling, or genuine uncertainty about whether the match will be contested at all. Standard sportsbooks typically price women's clay-court matchups between top-100 players with meaningful two-way probability unless one player carries a significant ranking or recent-form advantage.

Kostyuk, a Ukrainian player ranked in the top 30, has shown inconsistent results on clay relative to hard courts, whilst Andreeva, an emerging Russian talent, has demonstrated rapid improvement across surfaces since 2024. Historical precedent suggests that when prediction markets diverge sharply from sportsbook consensus—particularly at extreme probabilities like 0%—the discrepancy often stems from contract ambiguity rather than genuine market insight. The settlement window closes 11 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for delays or retirements.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any late withdrawals due to injury, which remain common in the women's draw during the fortnight. Recent ATP and WTA scheduling changes have occasionally resulted in matches being rescheduled or consolidated, particularly if weather disruptions occur. Confirmation of the match's actual seeding and round assignment closer to the tournament start date will clarify whether the 0% probability reflects a genuine market signal or a structural issue with the contract's terms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.