Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Kaitlin Quevedo and Laura Samson are scheduled to meet in the Modena tournament on 11 June 2026, with the match originally set for 6:00 AM ET. The 0% implied probability on this contract reflects either minimal trading activity or a strong consensus that one player will not compete. Settlement occurs on 18 June, allowing a seven-day window for completion; matches delayed beyond that threshold without a determined winner trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Quevedo and Samson occupy different tiers of professional tennis, which historically shapes match-outcome probabilities. Quevedo, a former top-100 player, has competed in WTA events and ITF tournaments; Samson's career trajectory and recent ranking position determine whether this represents a significant upset scenario or a closer contest. The 0% probability suggests traders either lack confidence in available information or expect a withdrawal or cancellation. Cross-platform sportsbook odds, if available through major European operators covering ITF or lower-tier WTA events, would clarify whether the market reflects genuine expectation or data scarcity.

Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmation, injury announcements, and schedule adjustments. Modena's grass-court surface and early-June timing mean weather delays are plausible; the seven-day buffer provides some protection against cancellation resolution. Recent ITF and WTA injury reports should be monitored, as either player's withdrawal would trigger the 50-50 outcome. Traders should verify whether this match appears on official WTA or ITF schedules and whether sportsbooks have priced the fixture, as absence from major booking platforms often correlates with low-probability contracts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.