Roland Garros WTA: Emma Raducanu vs Solana Sierra

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Emma Raducanu is scheduled to face Solana Sierra in the first round of the 2026 Roland Garros women's draw on 24 May. The 0% implied probability on this contract reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical issue, as major sportsbooks have not yet published opening lines for first-round clay-court matches this far in advance. Prediction markets typically show near-zero probabilities for events with sparse liquidity rather than genuine conviction that one outcome is impossible.

Raducanu's performance on clay remains the critical historical lens. Her 2024 and 2025 clay seasons showed modest results—she reached the Madrid quarter-finals in 2024 but has struggled with consistency on the surface, particularly early in tournaments. Sierra, ranked outside the top 150, has limited WTA-level clay exposure. First-round matches at Roland Garros frequently favour the higher-ranked player, though upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of such contests depending on ranking differential and surface suitability.

Traders should monitor Raducanu's fitness status and training reports through May, as injury concerns have disrupted her schedule in previous seasons. The French Open draw release typically occurs in late May, confirming the pairing and seeding. Any withdrawal announcements from either player would trigger the match cancellation clause. Sportsbook lines will emerge closer to the tournament; meaningful divergence between those odds and current prediction-market prices would signal either updated information or liquidity shifts worth tracking.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.