Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery | 89% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 Winner | 72% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to cincinnati open, qualification: lilli tagger vs robin montgomery. This market refers to the tennis match between Lilli Tagger and Robin Montgomery in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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