Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas | 95% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 84% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 2 Winner | 83% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of athens open: tereza valentova vs sofia costoulas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Tereza Valentova and Sofia Costoulas in the Athens Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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