Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are projected to remain near 2025 levels, with the most probable outcome ranking the year as the fourth hottest since 1850, behind 2023, 2024 and 2025[2]. This historical framing explains the current 32% crowd-implied probability for 2026 ranking among the top three hottest years: while record-breaking warmth is unlikely, it cannot be ruled out entirely given the 10% chance of a first-place finish and 21% for second place[2]. The divergence between prediction-market odds and the Berkeley Earth consensus (which assigns only 33% combined probability to a top-three rank) suggests traders may be overweighting tail-risk scenarios compared to scientific modelling.

Key catalysts include the persistence of La Niña, which is expected to keep 2026 cooler than 2023 and 2024, and the timing of the World Meteorological Organisation’s updated five-year temperature forecast release[2][1]. Traders should monitor monthly global surface temperature reports from NOAA, particularly for anomalies in the second half of 2026 that could shift the annual rank[8][9]. A sudden transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions before December would be the primary upside catalyst for a higher rank, though current oceanic cooling patterns make this less likely[2]. The market settles immediately once the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data for 2026 becomes available, regardless of later revisions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.