Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station will determine this market's resolution, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome materialising, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity. This contract settles to a discrete temperature range in Celsius, making it sensitive to both the absolute high and the precise measurement methodology employed by the station's instruments.

Amsterdam's August climate typically produces highs between 22–24°C, though extremes have reached 30°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw temperatures exceed 35°C across the Netherlands, whilst more recent summers have remained closer to historical norms. The zero probability reading diverges sharply from typical sportsbook and meteorological consensus patterns, which would ordinarily reflect seasonal baseline expectations with modest variance bands. This disconnect warrants scrutiny of whether the market reflects genuine conviction about a particular outcome or simply insufficient liquidity.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing heat domes over continental Europe. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) publishes monthly outlooks that typically become more precise four to six weeks ahead. Any significant deviation from August's historical temperature distribution—whether toward unseasonable warmth or cool conditions—would materialise in meteorological guidance before the settlement window. The specificity of the Daily Observations source means measurement timing and station calibration remain relevant resolution considerations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.