Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature reached at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 30 July, with the market settling to the range that contains that day’s maximum in Celsius. Historical July norms for Amsterdam point to a mid-summer high around 22°C, with daily highs commonly in the low 20s rather than extreme heat, which is why a 0% yes-implied probability looks deeply out of line with climatology rather than with a normal summer day.[2][4][9]

Comparable cases suggest the contract should be read as a tail-weather bet rather than a routine seasonal one. Amsterdam’s July averages cluster around 21–22°C for highs, while recent observational snippets from Schiphol have shown values in the low-to-mid 20s, and the city’s monthly records include occasional bursts into the high 20s or low 30s, but those are exceptional rather than typical.[9][12][13] On that basis, analyst-style consensus would usually sit far above zero for any broad warm-weather range and still leave meaningful mass in moderate bands, so a zero price likely reflects either a stale book, a formatting issue, or a very specific contract interpretation rather than a genuine view that the airport cannot warm up at all.[7][8]

Traders should watch the Schiphol observation stream on Wunderground closely, because the resolution depends on the day’s highest reported station temperature rather than a citywide average, and late-afternoon warmth can still move the final bucket if the reading is updated before the settlement window closes.[1] The main catalysts are simple: sunshine duration, wind direction off the North Sea, and any rainband or shower line that caps the afternoon peak; current daily observation data from nearby airport sources already show temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, so the immediate question is whether July 30 develops into a normal warm day or a stronger, short-lived spike.[12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.