Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s afternoon maximum on 31 July will be judged against a summer climate that is usually moderate rather than extreme. July normals for Amsterdam cluster around a **22°C** high, with typical daily highs near **72°F** and lows around **56°F**, which makes the market’s current **0% YES** implication look like a pricing artefact rather than a statement about the weather itself.[8][13][10] Historical July distributions also point to limited upside in a typical year: one climate source shows an average July high of **21°C**, while another notes that Amsterdam’s hottest July on record reached **32°C**, suggesting that very warm outcomes are possible but uncommon.[10][7]

For comparison, recent forecast-style sources have shown end-of-month highs around **26°C to 26.7°C** for Amsterdam, with cloud and drizzle risk, which is consistent with a warm but not especially hot setup.[3][2] The key settlement issue is not city-wide weather but the **highest temperature recorded at Schiphol** and the exact temperature band used by the market, so even a brief late-day spike can matter if the day turns sunnier than model guidance suggests.[3][15] Traders should watch the Schiphol observation feed and any late updates from major forecast providers, because small shifts in sunshine, wind direction and precipitation timing can move the daily maximum by a couple of degrees.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.