Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement range for this market. The resolution mechanism draws from Weather Underground's historical database for that specific station, capturing the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit across all daylight and evening hours.

Atlanta's July temperatures typically peak between 88°F and 95°F, with historical records showing extreme heat days occasionally exceeding 95°F but remaining below 100°F at the airport station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal participation in this particular contract. Comparable July settlements at KATL over the past decade show clustering around 90–93°F as modal outcomes, with roughly 15–20% of years recording highs above 94°F. The current crowd assessment appears disconnected from seasonal baselines, indicating either thin liquidity or a mismatch between available resolution brackets and expected conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for late July 2026 as the settlement window approaches, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns that might drive temperatures toward the upper or lower extremes of Atlanta's typical range. Upper-level ridge positioning and Gulf moisture availability in the week preceding 27 July will be the primary drivers of whether that day's high falls within typical summer bounds or deviates meaningfully. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, leaving no room for post-event adjustments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.