Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement range for this contract. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at this official station, which serves as the authoritative source for Atlanta's daily extremes. The resolution window closes at midday on the settlement date, capturing the full diurnal cycle through the morning hours.

Atlanta's May climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, with historical records showing considerable year-to-year variation. The city's record high for May stands at 97°F, set in 1941, whilst May averages across the past three decades cluster around 82–86°F. Late May temperatures occasionally exceed 90°F during heat waves driven by high-pressure systems, but such events occur in roughly one year out of five. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or expect the market to resolve toward the most common outcome bands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Climate Prediction Center in the weeks preceding late May. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and tropical moisture patterns can suppress afternoon highs across the Southeast. Conversely, a ridge of high pressure anchored over the region would favour above-normal temperatures. Current long-range models remain uncertain at this distance, leaving substantial room for probability reassessment as May approaches and deterministic forecasts become available in the preceding week.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.