Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either confident in a specific temperature range or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across available brackets.

August represents Beijing's warmest month climatologically, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 29–32°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 35°C during heat waves. The 17th falls within the peak summer period when atmospheric conditions favour elevated temperatures; comparable dates from recent years show considerable variance depending on monsoon patterns and upper-level pressure systems. Traders should reference the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat warnings in the weeks preceding settlement, as these often correlate with extreme-temperature outcomes.

The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency worth monitoring. Recent summers have seen Beijing experience occasional rapid temperature swings driven by convective activity, and the specific timing of measurements at the airport station—which sits on the city's periphery—can diverge from central urban readings. Traders should track mid-August weather pattern forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any signals regarding Tibetan high-pressure systems or tropical moisture incursions that would influence whether temperatures cluster in typical ranges or breach historical thresholds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.