Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 is set to be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome on the current contract, Polymarket data shows the frontrunner outcome is 30°C at 27%, followed closely by 31°C at 24%[1]. This divergence highlights a key discrepancy: while the specific binary contract may be mispriced or misaligned with trader expectations, the underlying temperature distribution strongly favours the 30–31°C range, consistent with historical July averages near 31°C[1].

Historical July weather in Beijing typically sees daily highs around 88°F (31°C), rarely dipping below 78°F (26°C) or exceeding 96°F (36°C)[3]. Extreme cases exist—2023 saw temperatures reach 40°C, and records from 1759–1760 show peaks above 40°C during June and July[2][4]. However, such extremes are outliers; the bulk of climatology supports a high near 30–31°C, making the 0% YES probability on the current contract appear inconsistent with established patterns. Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the official resolution source, as conditions evolve through the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.