Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing will record its peak temperature for 13 July 2026 at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with settlement based on the highest Celsius reading logged that day via Wunderground. Historical July climatology shows average highs near 31–32 °C, though recent years have seen spikes to 40 °C or higher amid elevated humidity and scattered thunderstorms[1][2]. The all-time record for the city stands at 41.9 °C, set on 24 July 1999, while 2023 saw a peak of 40 °C in July, underscoring the volatility of midsummer heatwaves in northern China[2][5].

Current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome is 0% YES on the queried contract, yet the broader Polymarket market for the same date assigns 44% to 34 °C and 39% to 35 °C, indicating a meaningful divergence between the binary contract’s pricing and the multi-outcome consensus[1]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and Wunderground’s daily history feed, as forecast models for mid-July 2026 may shift rapidly with incoming humidity data or thunderstorm warnings[1]. No official heatwave announcements have been issued as of early July 2026, but the trend of record-breaking national temperatures since 2023 suggests heightened risk of extreme highs[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.