Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that figure. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, signalling near-universal confidence that the temperature will not exceed the contract’s threshold.

Historical July highs at ZBAA routinely breach 31°C, with the station hitting 35.4°C on 20 July 2019 and 36.1°C on 22 July 2023, according to Wunderground’s daily archive. Such records make a sub-31°C peak on 20 July 2026 statistically anomalous, yet the 0% line suggests traders are pricing in an unusually cool forecast or a specific range cap that excludes the YES outcome entirely. No sportsbook currently lists a parallel line, leaving the prediction market as the sole venue for odds comparison on this weather event.

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s 24-hour forecast updates and the China Meteorological Administration’s high-temperature alert schedule, both of which can shift daily peak expectations within hours. Wunderground’s real-time feed for ZBAA will provide the definitive settlement data, but short-term model revisions from ECMWF or GFS could alter the implied probability before the 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z settlement window closes. No recent news event has triggered a forecast downgrade, so the 0% line likely reflects baseline climatology rather than a specific catalyst.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.