Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's daily maximum temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. June temperatures in Beijing typically range between 25–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting more granular temperature-range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller specification of the settlement bands.

Historical June data from Beijing's airport station shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur in roughly one year per decade during this month, though warming trends have increased their frequency since 2010. The 2020–2025 period recorded three June days above 34°C at the airport station, providing a recent baseline for assessing tail-risk scenarios. Comparable prediction markets on Chinese city temperatures have typically seen meaningful divergence between sportsbook weather derivatives (which price volatility heavily) and prediction-market implied probabilities, particularly when settlement windows close during the measurement day itself.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts, typically released in late May, which will clarify whether June 2026 is expected to track above or below the 30-year normal. The Asia-Pacific monsoon onset timing—usually mid-June—functions as a secondary catalyst; early monsoon arrival typically moderates temperatures, whilst delayed onset extends the pre-monsoon heat window. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems and any declared heat-alert protocols from Beijing municipal authorities in early June will sharpen market pricing closer to settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.