Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 16 June 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the likelihood of various temperature thresholds being breached during the preceding 24 hours. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity or consensus has formed around a specific temperature band.

Mid-June in Beijing typically sees maximum temperatures between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. Historical records from Wunderground show that 16 June has recorded highs ranging from 25°C to 35°C over recent decades, reflecting the variability of early summer weather in northern China. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either minimal market participation or a technical issue with the odds display rather than genuine trader conviction about temperature outcomes.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 16 June, as these typically provide reliable guidance for maximum temperatures five to seven days ahead. Recent patterns suggest that late spring and early summer in Beijing have experienced above-average temperatures, though individual daily forecasts remain subject to frontal systems and atmospheric pressure changes. The resolution mechanism via Wunderground's historical database is straightforward, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or methodology once the date passes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.