Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, indicating no meaningful trading activity or consensus around any specific temperature band yet.

Late May in Beijing typically falls within late spring conditions, with average highs around 28–30°C and occasional peaks exceeding 32°C during warm spells. Historical records from Wunderground show that 26 May temperatures have ranged from 18°C to 35°C across recent decades, with considerable year-to-year variability driven by monsoon onset timing and upper-level atmospheric patterns. The absence of any non-zero probability suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish baseline expectations, despite the event being roughly 18 months away.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released by China's National Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding May 2026, particularly any early signals regarding monsoon progression or heat-wave development across northern China. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could influence the likelihood of above-normal temperatures. The zero probability reflects early-stage market formation rather than genuine certainty about outcomes; comparable weather markets typically see probability clustering only once forecasts narrow to within 10–14 days of the event date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.