Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Buenos Aires' Minister Pistarini International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific station, which serves as the primary meteorological reference for the region's aviation and climate monitoring.

July sits within Buenos Aires' winter season, when daytime highs typically range between 13°C and 17°C, though variations of several degrees either side occur depending on synoptic patterns. Historical records from the airport station show that extreme heat during mid-winter is rare; temperatures above 20°C on a July day occur infrequently, whilst readings below 10°C are equally uncommon. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in no meaningful chance of an unusually warm outcome, consistent with seasonal norms. Comparable winter days at the airport station rarely produce outlier temperatures, anchoring expectations toward the modal range.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Southern Hemisphere weather forecasts as mid-July approaches, particularly any anomalous high-pressure systems or warm air masses that might push temperatures above seasonal medians. Argentina's meteorological service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) publishes extended forecasts that often diverge from international models; divergence between these sources and consensus patterns warrants attention. Cold fronts tracking across the Pampas region in early July could suppress temperatures further, whilst any delayed warm spell would be the primary catalyst for resolution in higher ranges. Current pricing reflects confidence in typical winter conditions persisting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.