Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Gimhae International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% implied probability across the available temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a technical artefact in how the market has been structured.

July temperatures in Busan historically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The city's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland Korean regions, though the monsoon season (typically June–August) introduces variability. Gimhae Airport's measurement station, positioned near sea level, tends to record slightly cooler maxima than central Busan due to maritime influence. Reviewing Wunderground's historical records for late July across the past decade provides the most reliable baseline for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine probability mass.

Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 28 July, as these typically offer the most granular guidance on whether high-pressure systems or moisture-laden fronts will dominate. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July could materially shift outcomes, though such systems remain difficult to predict more than 10 days in advance. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single airport station means localised measurement conditions—cloud cover, wind patterns, sensor calibration—will determine the final reading rather than broader regional conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.