Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 1 August is normally hot enough that the market’s **0% YES** price looks anchored to the fact that only the day’s *peak* reading counts, not the average. Historical August norms put Chengdu’s highs around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with 1 August often among the warmest days of the month; one climate reference gives a typical 1 August high of 33.8°C, while broader August averages sit near 29.8°C to 31°C.[5][2][4][12] That matters because a settlement above the lower temperature bands is plausible on a sunny afternoon, but the contract only pays if the recorded daily maximum lands in the specified range at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, which can diverge from city-wide climatology.[16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon heat profile, cloud cover, and any rain or convective activity over the airport, since these can cap the daily maximum even when the broader city is warm. August in Chengdu is also one of the wetter months, with frequent rainfall and high humidity, which makes the exact timing of showers important for the high of the day.[2][12][18] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather markets and analyst consensus on the underlying forecast would usually lean far less extreme than a flat 0% market price if forecasts call for a normal summer day; the key divergence is that prediction markets can be slow to reprice until short-range forecast updates arrive, especially close to the settlement window. If you are comparing venues, the strongest signal is whether the 24-hour forecast for the airport shifts towards an unusually cool, overcast, or rainy afternoon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.