Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the settlement contingent on the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport's meteorological station. The market uses Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source, bypassing the summary Day High & Low figures that sometimes diverge from granular station data. Resolution occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing a full calendar day of readings across Chengdu's hottest season.

August temperatures in Chengdu typically range between 28–35°C, though extremes occasionally breach 36–37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows the city exceeds 35°C on roughly 40–50% of August days, with peaks concentrated in the first three weeks. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either scepticism about extreme heat materialising or uncertainty around which specific temperature bracket will resolve. This contrasts with typical summer forecasting patterns, where late-July and early-August conditions usually establish clearer heat trajectories.

The primary catalyst remains the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any high-pressure systems anchoring over central China in early August. China's National Meteorological Centre issues 10-day forecasts by late July that will clarify whether anomalous heat is probable. Regional air quality and humidity levels, tracked by Chengdu's environmental monitoring networks, often correlate with temperature peaks. Traders should monitor late-July weather model consensus; divergence between European and American ensemble forecasts historically signals uncertainty that depresses extreme-temperature probabilities in prediction markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.