Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with the settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete crowd participation or an expectation that resolution data may face delays or complications.

Chengdu experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical August averages around 29–32°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 35°C during heat waves. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a heat-trapping effect that can drive temperatures toward 38–40°C on extreme days. August 2023 saw Chengdu reach 40.2°C, and August 2022 peaked at 39.8°C, establishing a reference point for what constitutes an outlier reading versus typical seasonal conditions. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, creating a tight window between morning forecast updates and final resolution. Any disruption to Shuangliu station operations or data transmission could affect resolution timing. Weather Underground's historical data completeness for this station has been reliable, though traders should verify the specific Daily Observations table format to avoid confusion with alternative temperature metrics.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.