Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 17 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport determining settlement. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings when stations report multiple observation cycles throughout a day.

August temperatures in Chengdu historically cluster between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a thermal pocket effect, trapping warm air and elevating daytime maxima above surrounding regions. Over the past five years, mid-August highs have ranged from 31°C to 38°C, with 2022 and 2023 recording particularly intense episodes. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the market's temperature range sits below historical August norms—a positioning that warrants scrutiny given Chengdu's consistent summer volatility.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature extremes. La Niña or El Niño conditions active during northern hemisphere summer can shift East Asian weather patterns substantially; any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress Chengdu temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The absence of meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds suggests limited institutional attention to this contract, creating potential mispricing if seasonal patterns or anomalous weather systems develop.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.