Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s temperature outcome will be set by the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 2 August, and the market is priced at **0% YES**, which implies the contract’s target range is being treated as extremely unlikely to be reached. Long-run August climatology for Chengdu still points to a hot, humid pattern rather than a cool outlier: average highs are typically around 29–31°C, with several guides noting that daytime maxima can reach the mid-30s on hotter days and that August is both muggy and rain-prone.[2][3][4][10][14][16] WeatherSpark’s monthly profile also places the hottest part of the month right at the start of August, with the highest average daily high on 1 August and rare excursions above 94°F, which frames why traders usually anchor expectations around the low- to mid-30s Celsius rather than much lower bands.[6]

For comparison across platforms, there is no visible sportsbook line in the provided material, so the main pricing contrast is between the prediction market’s 0% reading and the meteorological consensus embedded in seasonal normals, which is materially hotter than that implied probability suggests. The key question is not whether Chengdu can be hot enough, but whether the airport station records a *specific* day’s maximum inside the market’s winning range, because rainfall, cloud cover and afternoon storms can cap the peak even in an otherwise warm August pattern.[3][4][5][13] The most important catalyst is the day’s actual observed weather at the airport, with short-term forecasts from mainstream weather providers and any late-morning or early-afternoon thunderstorm development likely to matter more than the monthly average. By contrast, there is no clear evidence in the supplied sources of an analyst consensus calling for an exceptional heat spike, which leaves the contract’s practical drivers as the hourly local forecast, convective rain risk and whether Chengdu gets a rare sunny break strong enough to lift the maximum well above the usual August norm.[2][3][7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.