Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 3 August is being priced against a city that is usually warm to hot in August, with long-run guides putting typical daytime highs around 30°C and many daily highs clustering in the low 30s Celsius. Seasonal averages from multiple travel and weather sources also suggest that highs above 35°C are possible but not the norm, which makes a **0% YES** line look far below the broad climatic baseline for early August in Chengdu.[1][3][8][15]

Comparable August readings help explain why the contract is trading at an extreme discount. Historical and forecast-style sources for Chengdu commonly show August highs in the 29–33°C range, while some outlets flag occasional spikes to 35°C or higher and others point to heavy humidity and rain as the main limiter rather than a lack of heat.[1][3][4][6][10][18] By that yardstick, the crowd-implied probability appears to be materially lower than what a simple seasonal comparison would suggest, though the exact settlement bin still depends on the market’s temperature range and the airport station’s official Wunderground reading.[3][15]

The key trader catalyst is the intraday forecast-to-observation path through the settlement window: any late-morning cloud cover, rain bands, or thunderstorm timing could cap the airport high even if the city later heats up elsewhere. Recent public forecasts for Chengdu have varied from the low 30s Celsius to the mid-30s, with some hourly outlooks showing 35°C and only modest rain chances, so the practical question is whether the airport station can print a midday peak before convection or showers arrive.[12][13] Cross-platform comparison matters here because sportsbook-style weather lines, prediction-market pricing, and analyst-style climatology are not aligned: the market is signalling an exceptional outcome, while the broader weather consensus is far closer to a normal-hot August day than to a near-impossible tail event.[8][12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.